10-30-2013 Trading The  FOMC

When trading the FOMC , one must be clear and concise about their direction and strategies. The FOMC days along with the NFP are the days with the most volatility than any other trading day. Today in the day trading room we were reviewing the possible outcome from the FOMC. Our research concludes  that the meeting today should not take anyone by surprise. As we also know as traders, you never know until the news is released. We feel the  weak September jobs data has been followed by mixed sector data and lower than expected PPI, so we see little risk of the Fed changing its message today.

There has also been much talk about expectations for tapering being pushed out to Q1 2014.  There is no press conference after this meeting, this may limit the potential for market-moving  mis interpretations of the news. We will be looking more out to the 12- 17 and 18 meeting, this meeting will have a press conference.

In the room we discussed the USD index is at firm support. I think technical levels here may keep the dollar steady or may make the USD bounce a bit. The bottom line is anything is possible, however a lean towards the weaker USD I think is still a favorable option, however I am not biased and will go long or short depending upon the news and technicals. I am not holding any swing trades.

We will meet back in the live room trading the FOMC later.

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Regards,

Gerard (BT)